The New Rules of Business in a Tariff – War World
The past decade has seen the rules of global business being rewritten via policy shifts and negotiated transitions in press conferences and executive orders, with consequences that impact businesses whether they are paying attention or not.
Since April 2025, the United States has imposed a 14% tariff on Nigerian exports, part of a tariff regime that has reshaped trade flows across the world’s economy. China, the EU, and dozens of other major economies have responded with counter-measures. Global supply chains are being restructured, imports are rising, and the dollar is getting stronger, putting the naira under pressure. And Nigerian businesses are operating in a trade environment that is materially different from the one their strategies were built for.
A joint report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa, the African Development Bank, and the African Union Commission found that Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana face weighted average tariff increases of between 0.8% and 2.6% on their exports, significantly below the continent’s average of 7.1%. This is largely due to energy commodity exemptions. That relative insulation is real, but it is also not a reason for laxity, because the effects are felt in supply chain disruption, currency pressure, and reduced global demand across every sector regardless of direct tariff exposure.
The organizations that will navigate this period well are the ones building the internal capability to operate effectively regardless of what the external environment does. That distinction between organizations that execute through disruption and organisations that are disrupted — is the core argument of this series.
What has changed for Nigerian businesses
The most immediate effect for Nigerian businesses are indirect: the strengthening dollar increasing the naira cost of imports, global supply chains being restructured in ways that affect Nigerian businesses that are dependent on components from China or the EU, and the broader slowdown in global economic activity reducing demand for Nigerian commodities. For businesses importing raw materials, equipment, or intermediate goods, costs have risen. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s foreign exchange reforms of 2023 –2024, which allowed the naira to find a more market-driven rate, have provided some buffer, however, a stronger dollar erodes that buffer.
The organizations most exposed are those whose cost structures were built on stable import prices and predictable forex. The organizations least exposed are those that have already reduced their import dependency, diversified their supply chains, or built pricing structures that are resilient to currency fluctuation.
The businesses that will define Nigerian commerce in five years are not the ones with the most favourable trade conditions today. They are the ones currently building the correct internal architecture right now.
